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Welcome to WeatherNinja.net!

This site is under construction (just like the central Arkansas freeway system). Follow along on the live chase page when I’m out storm chasing in Arkansas or other sections of the country and watch all the action live via streaming video.  Check back often for updates and additions as I add maps, sites, radar and other awesome weather information.   You can catch my morning weather forecast for Central Arkansas on 103.7 FM The Buzz each weekday morning from 6:25-6:35 am on The Show With No Name.

 

AR Weather Update

January 25, 2015

3:00 PM

Clouds have rolled in behind the cold front with gusty W/NW winds of 20-25 mph with gusts over 30. Temps are in the upper 30’s to low 60’s across the state.

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8:00 am

After a nice day on Saturday, clouds moved into the state overnight associated with a cold front and low pressure center to our north. This system produced and is producing a few showers across northern and northeastern Arkansas this morning. Temperatures were cool but not too bad for late January with most readings in the 40’s this morning.

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Satellite photo this morning at 8:30 am.

 

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The cold front will move through with a mix of clouds and sun today. Gusty westerly winds will develop behind the frontal system especially this afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 mph with gusts over 30 possible over northern and central parts of the state.  As I mentioned yesterday, I thought the temps might be held in check due to the cloudiness and cooler air vs. previous thinking that temps would warm into the 60’s. Most areas will see high temperatures in the 50’s with slowly falling temps in the northern and some central sections as the cooler air behind the cold front moves in along with additional cloudiness. Southern Arkansas will see high temperatures in the low to mid 60’s. There will be a chance of some rain in the northern and central sections but amounts are expected to be light.

The upcoming week looks nice with mild to warm January temperatures. Sunshine should be seen most of the week with temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 70 degree reading show up in the west or SW Part of the state on Tuesday or Wednesday.

I’m still watching a system for next weekend that may bring our next chance of precipitation. Over the past couple of days, the GFS has been hinting at some winter type precipitation in the state as a storm system moves through. The last few runs of the model, have really backed off the idea of significant winter precipitation with a shift of most of the moisture to the south of AR. That is the same solution the Euro has been showing. So the GFS did it’s normal winter “flip flop”!

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6Z GFS keeping moisture to the south of Arkansas next Saturday evening.

 

 

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Looking at the Euro from weatherbell.com the model is keeping the main moisture away from Arkansas to the south and SW.

 

 

So that is why I mentioned the next snow always being 7 days away in the models and that’s why you can’t rely on just one or two model runs when looking at a long range forecast.

I know there are a lot of people that want at least one good snow before heading off to spring, and I know there are others that don’t want any frozen precipitation and the headaches that it can bring sometimes. I’ll continue to watch it for you as we’re still a week out and things will change.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature outlooks both indicate a return to below normal temperatures going into early February.

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CPC’s 8-14 day temperature outlook Feb 1-7

 

I have updated the Weather Resources page to include some links to some of the resources that I use. Feel free to check them out.

Keep it here for updates.